Leading market intelligence provider, IDTechEx based in Cambridge, UK, has provided insights on mobility trends for the past 20 years. Now they look at six trends for the future:
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Electric vehicles are going global
Ten years ago, IDTechEx predicted that there would be over 1.5 million electric cars by 2021. This turned out to be an underestimate, with China, Europe, and the US significantly growing their markets last year.
Now, it’s the turn of flying electric taxis. It may seem something out of a science fiction movie, but the reality is that companies like American Airlines, Virgin Atlantic, United Airlines, UPS and Avolon, have all placed pre-orders. The proliferation of electric vehicles is now unstoppable and will play an essential role in becoming less reliant on fossil fuels in the future.
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Robotaxis to transform the automotive industry
IDTechEx expects autonomous cars —also called robotaxis—to be ready and match or exceed human safety by 2024. Long-term projections regarding safety put autonomous cars capable of fulfilling all our mobility needs without collisions by 2050.
This will have a significant impact on consumers’ travel habits. Without the need for a driver, robotaxis represent an affordable transport service. It’s not unreasonable to suggest that car ownership can become a thing of the past for future generations. Given that one robotaxi can serve multiple people, demand for new cars is expected to drop sharply.
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Going beyond lithium-based batteries
Without Li-ion batteries, electric vehicles would still be behind internal combustion cars. Battery technologies continue to evolve rapidly. The key now is to increase the use of sustainable materials while at the same time ensuring there is still enough supply to meet up with demand. IDTechEx expects a move beyond Li-ion batteries towards solid-state and lithium-metal batteries to increase safety and performance.
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Advanced motors key to lower cost and increase range
Improving the efficiency of power electronics and electric traction motors is vital to reduce costs and increase range. One of the most important trends in this area includes a transition towards wide bandgap semiconductor devices.
In addition, permanent magnet motors have a high performance and high efficiency and are often used for traction applications. However, recycling is complex, and long-term reliance is becoming increasingly unsustainable. As a replacement, magnet-free and even copper-free motors are gaining momentum. Also, a switch to wide bandgap electronics is already underway. IDTechEx expects that by 2030 half of electric cars will be using these more efficient devices.
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Battery technology is evolving
Batteries are evolving both at cell and pack levels. For example, battery chemistry is moving towards higher nickel cathodes, and lithium iron phosphate batteries are making a comeback. This is likely to change how different materials are incorporated, including thermal interface materials, coolant channels, and fire protection.
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Hydrogen fuel cells may be the final piece of the puzzle
Research continues on battery-powered electric cars, but there are many situations where these batteries are not enough. Long-haul trucking and high mileage buses are just a few examples. This creates an opportunity for fuel cells, and companies like Toyota, Hyundai, GM, and Daimler are already investing millions in improving this technology.