In an interview with CNBC on Sunday, Riccardo Puliti, the World Bank’s global head of energy and extractives, said that he expects a significant increase in renewables in the global energy mix over the next decade. Although recent data show a global rise in energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions, there are also positive indicators for the growth of the renewable energy sector that support Puliti’s predictions.
“I think 10, 12 years from now, we will see renewables and storage and nothing more than that,” Puliti, told CNBC. Puliti also predicted that gas would continue to be important for industry and transportation “but probably not in power generation,” and that coal would be phased out of the global energy mix over the next 30 years.
Several recent reports provide conflicting evidence as to whether Puliti’s prediction will hold. Data released last month by the International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed that after two years of decline, global coal consumption increased by 1% in 2017.
Global oil and gas demand last year increased even more than demand for coal, according to the data. Oil demand grew by 1.6%, or 1.5 million barrels a day, while gas demand rose by 3%.
The increases, driven in part by strong economic growth, led to a jump in energy-related carbon dioxide emissions after three years of remaining stable, according to both the IEA data and a Global Carbon Project report released in late 2017.
Emissions are also increasing in Europe. European Commission data released on Tuesday showed that greenhouse gas emissions regulated by Europe’s carbon market rose in 2017, marking the first increase in seven years.
Data from IEA also showed a jump in European Union emissions last year. According to the report, greenhouse gas emissions in the EU rose by 1.5% in 2017, “reversing some of the progress made in recent years mainly due to robust growth in oil and gas use.” Oil demand in the EU also grew last year, rising to the highest level since 2001, according to IEA.
Despite rising emissions and energy demand around the world, recent data has suggested a positive outlook for renewables. The IEA data, for example, showed a higher growth rate among renewables than any other energy source in 2017.
China and the United States led the growth – together, they contributed around 50% of the increase in electricity generation from renewables. The EU, India and Japan followed, contributing a respective 8%, 6% and 6%.
Discussing whether the cost of renewable energy technology is a barrier to developing the sector, Puliti told CNBC that although renewable technologies may be expensive at first, “Little by little, it becomes very affordable. I think it’s a good bet for the future.”
Puliti added that the price of solar has been falling by 8 to 10% each year over the last few years, and said “we will see more renewables” as energy storage becomes more efficient and economically viable.
He also emphasised the importance of political will in the development of renewables. “It’s a matter of how much – as a government – you want to push for new technology, cleaner technology,” said Puliti.
By 2020, the EU has agreed to increase energy consumption from renewable sources to 20% of its energy mix. Targets in individual member states range from 10% in Malta to 49% in Sweden.