A new computer model can predict how Alzheimer’s disease will develop, according to a study published in the journal Neurology. The team from Amsterdam UMC’s Alzheimer Centre says the next step is to create an app that uses this prediction model, which would be used to develop personalised forecasts for patients.
One of the most common questions from patients is what to expect in the future and how symptoms will develop. This is difficult to answer because patients progress at different speeds.
As a way to help answer this question, Pieter van der Veere developed a composter model to predict cognitive decline. Although these predictions are not 100% guaranteed, the model indicates the course of the disease for five years. For practical use, a prototype of the app is already available for scientific research. The next step is to make it more user-friendly for patients, family members, and professionals.
The computer model was developed with data from over 1000 patients with Alzheimer’s disease. It relies on general information including age, gender, cognitive test scores, and data from MRI scans and biomarkers, gathered from cerebrospinal fluid.
“As a result, it gives a prediction that is really tailored to each individual person,” says Van der Veere. Despite the predictions, the model confirms how difficult it is to make a precise prediction for each patient because there are so many uncertainties. “Previous research shows that people still want information about their prognosis, even if this information is uncertain. An app with our prediction model can therefore meet an important need.”
There is still much work to do, but the authors believe this is an important step towards personalised medicine. “In the future, this will become even more important if we can treat Alzheimer’s disease,” said Wiesje van der Flier, Research Director at Alzheimer Centre Amsterdam. “Doctors can use the prediction model to explain what the possible effect of a treatment can be. For example, if patients start to live healthier lives or use medication.” This can be a starting point for conversations between doctor, patient and family about the pros and cons of treatments, so that they can come to an appropriate decision together.”
van der Veere PJ, Hoogland J, Visser LNC, Van Harten AC, Rhodius-Meester HF, Sikkes SAM, Venkatraghavan V, Barkhof F, Teunissen CE, van de Giessen E; Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI),; Berkhof J, Van Der Flier WM. Predicting Cognitive Decline in Amyloid-Positive Patients With Mild Cognitive Impairment or Mild Dementia. Neurology. 2024 Aug 13;103(3):e209605. doi: 10.1212/WNL.0000000000209605.